*The Politics of Terrorism – Is The Cane Used to Flog GEJ Now Dangling Over Jagaban?*

Tinubu’s Second-Term Dream Meets Trump’s Reality Check in a Crisis Nigeria Can’t Ignore

By Dr Ope Banwo (Mayor of Fadeyi | Founder, Naija Lives Matter)

*Once Upon a Time in Jonathan Goodluck’s Aso Rock, Abuja…*

In 2014, in the twilight months of President Goodluck Jonathan tenure, Nigeria was a country trapped in a permanent state of mourning.

Bombs exploded in Nyanya. Churches and mosques became twin targets. Young School Girls were kidnapped in Chibok and vanished like whispers into the night.

Every evening, Nigerians sat before their TVs shaking their heads as the scroll of tragedy crawled across the screen: “Dozens killed in Borno,” “Explosions rock Kano,” “Boko Haram claims responsibility.”

President Goodluck Jonathan was drowning — not only in insecurity, but in perception. His government appeared helpless, disconnected, in competent, corrupt and overrun by forces he could neither name nor tame.

Then came the opposition’s masterstroke. The newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) found its golden hammers: terrorism AND Corruption. They kept highlighting why Jonathan must go because he could not guarantee the safety of Nigerians from the almighty boko haram .

They didn’t just criticize Jonathan; they used the fact of seemingly pervasive insecurity in the land to narrate his downfall with surgical precision while the APC candidate boasted that he will end insecurity within 30 days

*How the GEJ Cane Was Carved and used mercilessly by a ruthless opponent*:
I still remember one particular rally in Lagos. An APC speaker thundered into the microphone: “If a man cannot protect the lives of our daughters, why should he protect the future of our nation?”

The crowd roared. That line — simple, brutal, emotional — cut deeper than any policy debate. Every explosion became a campaign poster. Every funeral became a press conference. Every mother’s tears became a talking point.

APC media strategists mastered the rhythm of outrage.

When Boko Haram bombed a bus station in Abuja, Twitter trends appeared within minutes as if by magic: #BringBackOurGirls, #GEJMustGo, #CluelessGovernment

While the The opposition may not have planted the bombs — they planted a narrative: that Jonathan had lost control of Nigeria, and that only a “strong man” like Mohammed Buhari, who carved his ‘strong man’ reputation during his military leadership days in the 80s, could restore order.

By 2015, that story became gospel. ‘Sai Baba’ became the battle cry of the opposition APC and Jonathan lost the election organized by his own government in the most brutal election take-down of a sitting government by an opposition party in Nigerian history .

The defeat was so comprehensive that for the first time in nigerian history a sitting government conceded an election even before the votes were fully counted

The cane of the politics of insecurity had landed with ferocity and the govt of GEJ was swept away like the floods of Victoria Island during rainy season.

*Now, the Same Stick Is Swinging Back To APC And BAT*
Fast-forward ten years. The same party that used terrorism as a political weapon is now trapped in its own snare.

Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the headlines have begun to rhyme again:
•”Bandits Kill Dozens in Zamfara.”
•”Terrorists Ambush Soldiers in Shiroro.”
•”Kidnappers Collect ₦200 Million Ransom in Kaduna.”
“Tinubu cannot control the genocide of Christians”

Different names.
Different geography.
Different President.
Same Playbook.
Same pain for ruling party.

The new opposition, now licking its old wounds, seemed to have dusted off the 2015 playbook.

The new opposition is once again counting bodies, and exaggerating the numbers and the scope to score political points.

They are whispering to foreign allies, feeding the press stories of “genocide against Christians.” They are painting Tinubu with the same brush the opposition once wielded on Goodluck Jonathan.

*History Is Repeating Itself— Only the Parties and Victims have Changed*

Donald Trump’s sudden interest in Nigeria’s security crisis has only added fireworks to this déjà vu drama.

When he declared Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” and threatened air strikes against “Islamic terrorists killing Christians,” the news crackled like dry wood in harmattan.

It was as if the ghosts of 2015 had awakened.

Then, the world listened to cries of “Save the Christians under Jonathan!” . Now, the same world is hearing “Save the Christians under Tinubu!”

I watched an American news clip where a white pastor, his voice trembling with sincerity, declared, “Nigeria is the new Rwanda; if America doesn’t act, millions of Christians will perish.”

Meanwhile, on the ground in Kaduna, Muslims and Christians were burying their dead side by side — victims of the same bullets, the same neglect, same terrorists with different names, the same cynical politicians.

Yet the opposition preferred to label it “Genocide against Christians!” since that gives the insecurity whip more velocity as a divisive element to wield against the ruling party

*The Danger of Political Amnesia For Our Nation*
It seems every generation of Nigerian politicians must learn this lesson the hard way: terrorism has no party affiliation. The machete that once sliced your opponent will eventually find your own skin and neck.

The APC, once the hunter, now feels the crosshairs of the gun as the hunted. The PDP, once the hunted, now reloads old propaganda clips and smiles knowingly. The Labour Party, forever the loud neighbor, shouts “We warned you!” from across the fence.

Even the secessionist IPOB and some of their brothers hiding under the Obidient Movement banner are gleefully fueling the Genocide Narrative to further their own ends of violent destruction of Nigeria.

Their leader Nnamdi Kanu currently facing charges of terrorism also wrote to President Trump in an attempt to add more fuel to the raging fire .

But beyond the noise, the real victims remain the same — the ordinary Nigerians who cannot sleep because gunshots are the new midnight bell.

Meanwhile the Tinubu govt and their supporters continue to blame Trump and the opposition instead of finding practical solutions to the real problems

*What President Bola Tinubu Must Learn from Jonathan’s Fall*

It does not matter what the motivations of Trump or the opposition may be, Tinubu Govt may still get swept away in the wake of the insecurity in the land if it does not take immediate and decisive actions to preserve itself

Without claiming to be a security expert, or even a knowledgeable politician, here would be some actions I would want to recommend to the government purely from my vantage point as an analyst, o server, historian and researcher on this issue :

1. President Tinubu must understand that Empathy Is Stronger Than Spin.

In my opinion, Jonathan’s greatest flaw wasn’t always incompetence — it was detachment or cluelessness. He was fiddling watching movie premieres by Omoni Oboli in Aso Rock while the north burned. He looked like a man reading about his country’s pain, not living it. His media assistants were busy spinning the attacks instead of actually dealing with it

Tinubu must not make that same mistake. Nigerians need to see him feel their grief, not outsource compassion to a spokesman. He can’t be buying new jets for the presidential fleet at a time some are claiming Christians in his country are facing existential threats.

2. Tinubu Must Strive To Control the Narrative or Be Consumed by It.

During Jonathan’s era, Boko Haram controlled both the battlefield and the headlines. Tinubu must speak early, clearly, and consistently. In the absence of information, rumour becomes gospel.

3. President Tinubu Must Show Consequence, Not just Condolence. Every time the government issues a “we condemn” statement instead of bombing the terrorists, the terrorists high-five each other.

Nigerians need to see arrests or dead bodies of the terorists, prosecutions of those aiding and abetting them, and tangible victories on the battlefield with the terrorists.

In this day and age, Bayo Onanuga and his formidable team of propagandists can’t cover or son the reality on ground. Everyone now has a pen to write. Nothing silences propaganda like results.

4. President Tinubu must Bridge the Faith Divide Before the Terrorists Divides Us.

President Tinubu must prove that this is not Muslims versus Christians issue, but a criminals versus citizens matter.

He should sit publicly with both the Christian Association of Nigeria and the Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs — not for photo ops, but for a joint security declaration.

5. Our President Must Reclaim Nigeria’s Story Abroad. Washington and London and everywhere else will always believe the loudest lobby. Right now, with no Ambassadors to make the case for the govt all over the world in last 2 years, the Tinubu Govt is fighting the battle of global perception with both hands tied behind his back .

That is most unfortunate and a case of pennywise pounds foolish by a govt claiming lack of funds to run its embassies abroad but awarding trillions of Naira contract for coastline roads with no public tender

President Tinubu needs to appoint its global ambassadors as a matter of emergency and also needs a proactive media and diplomatic strategy that tells the full truth — that Nigeria’s crisis is criminal, not religious; structural, not sectarian.

6. President Tinubu must Lead from the Front Lines. – Our President must physically Visit the scenes of tragedy, like FDR did after Pearl Harbor or like Zelenskyy walks his front lines. He can’t keep sending platitudes from Aso rock to middle belt or giving lame excuses like why his motorcade can’t visit a city because of bad roads which his govt failed to maintain in the first place.

President Tinubu must understand that Leadership is not a Zoom meeting. Presence is power. You can’t keep making announcements of support from the comfort of Aso Rock.

7. President Tinubu Must Deliver Peace, Not empty Promises.

Forget the second-term calculations. A president who restores peace never needs to campaign; the people will campaign for him. President Tinubu must hustle and bustle for real to peace and protection for the people in a measurable way , not sweet sounding promises.

What The Street is Saying… A few days ago, in my dear Fadeyi, I overheard two okada riders arguing over a newspaper headline about the latest killings.

One said, “This thing no start today o. Them use am pursue Jonathan from aso rock that time.” The other replied, “And now e don reach their turn. What is good for Jonathan is good for Tinubu.”

That conversation sums up the national mood — not hatred, but a weary cynicism.

The people have seen this movie before. They can already guess the ending. But Nigeria deserves a new ending — one where the government finally breaks the cycle instead of starring in the sequel.

*A Lesson for All Politicians And Their Praise Singing Supporters*
The politics of terrorism is a short-term strategy with long-term curses.

It wins elections but loses nations.

It excites crowds but populates our graves.

When opposition parties cheer at news of killings just to score points, they forfeit moral right to lead.

And when ruling parties trivialize security failures as “political propaganda,” they invite the condemnation of history and the people — because blood on the streets cannot be covered by the spin doctors in this age of social media.

*My Conclusion For Those Who Have Ears To Hear*
I am of the conviction that Nigeria’s biggest tragedy isn’t just the killings; it’s the recycling of the same wicked logic that turns every coffin into a campaign prop.

The cane used to flog Goodluck Jonathan is now dangling over Bola Ahmed Tinubu — and if wisdom doesn’t prevail, it will descend with the same fury.

History is whispering in Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo, Efik, Fufude and English: “Those who use pain as politics will one day be consumed by the pain they created.”

President Tinubu still has time to rewrite the script. But to do that, he must stop acting like a politician defending his mandate and start leading like a statesman defending his people. Because in the end, terrorism doesn’t vote. It only collects receipts. And the blood of every Nigerian — Muslim or Christian, North or South — is signing those receipts in red ink.

My name is Dr Ope Banwo. I am the Mayor of Fadeyi and Founder, Naija Lives Matter…. And I said what I said

Please Read, Comment and Share. Let’s continue the national conversation

Dr. Ope Banwo