Yes, Seyi Must Tell His Papa Country Hard, But We Must Also Give His Papa Some Flowers On Our Behalf! (Dr Ope Banwo, The Mayor of Fadeyi, writes on Nigeria’s Macro Economic Scorecard of the Tinubu Government so far )

I know it Doesn’t Feel Like It, But… Is Tinubu’s Government Actually Winning? There is Pain in the streets but there is Progress in the stats.

Despite how we feel, it looks like Tinubu’s government may be scoring some goals we’re just too angry to notice. So while sending Seyi to tell his Papa that country hard we must also tell him to thank his Papa for some of the hard word he is doing !

Yeah, I can’t believe I’m writing this.

As one of the most vocal and unapologetically combative critics of this government, I didn’t imagine I’d be the one to say these words.

But here we are.

It doesn’t feel like it—but Tinubu may actually be making real progress.

Yes, I said it.

No, I haven’t gone soft.

And no, I haven’t been bought

But as a patriotic Nigerian—and as someone who values facts over sentiments—I must confess: Despite the annoying attempts by some govt economists to insult our intelligence over the price of lunch and their poor attempt to redefine multi-dimensional poverty, which is it still very real in our country, a closer objective look at the data shows it is beginning to speak a different language.

And no matter how hard it is to admit, or how angry we get over some issues with this government, facts do not lie.

So Why Does It Still Feel Like Chaos?

Let’s be honest. Some facts cannot be denied or hidden under the carpet:
The average Nigerian is still struggling. Transportation costs are through the roof. Fuel prices are unpredictable. And every visit to the market feels like you’re being punished for something you didn’t do.

From Fadeyi to Lekki, From Lagos to Kano, and Port Harcourt to Maiduguri—life is hard. So, I agree with Idris Abdulkareem that Seyi must tell his Papa that country is hard but we must also tell him to tell his Papa that is Papa is scoring some goals too!

So yes, emotionally, this administration feels like a disaster. But then, good governance isn’t measured by feelings. It’s measured by results. And sometimes, the most necessary reforms are the most painful in the short term. We can’t escape paying the bills for the past profligacy and incompetence of past governments. You don’t jump from a mess into prosperity as a nation without going through some pain too. 

This is where I think many of us, myself included, often short change the Tinubu govt

So let’s examine the actual performance of President Tinubu’s administration—using hard macro economic indicators that many of us can verify for ourselves just spending some time to research if this country really matters to us

And I challenge you—yes, you the reader, whether you love or hate Jagaban—to not take my word or the word of any social media mob. Go verify every one of these for yourself.

1. GDP Growth – IMPROVEMENT
From 2.8% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024, with projections showing 4.17% in 2025.

That’s steady upward movement, even amid global instability.

like it or hate it, THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN and Seyi should thank his Papa on our behalf .

2. Inflation Rate – REGRESSION
Inflation hit a 30-year high at 34.8% in December 2024. It has since dropped to 23.18% or so the stats say, but Nigerians are still grappling with higher food and fuel prices. Despite the drop, cost of living remains unbearable for most.

23.18% inflation is still a killer

Yes, THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE AGAINST JAGABAN and Seyi Must tell his Papa the truth on our behalf.

3. Unemployment Rate – REGRESSION

Official reports say unemployment is at 4.3% but this is just clever statistical manipulation. But let’s be real: from Fadeyi to Egbeda, from Jeddah to Abakaliki, Many are simply underemployed, self-employed out of desperation, or working for survival. Yet our economists like Tope Fasua will tell us this do not count towards unemployment. What a joke

A change in methodology may make the numbers look good—but reality on the streets tells a different story.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE AGAINST JAGABAN AND SEYI MUST LET HIS PAPA KNOW THIS.

4. Exchange Rate – REGRESSION
The naira dropped from ₦900/$ to ₦1,535/$ at the official window in 2024.

While floating the currency was a bold move, and even I agree that it’s the right move to make considering how messed up our economy was before Jagaban took over, the shock was brutal for ordinary citizens.

We are now seeing some signs of stabilization, but the damage has been significant.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE AGAINST JAGABAN. SEYI should tell his Papa that we know he tried but nobody can buy rice in oyingbo market with ‘try’ 🤷🏿‍♂️

5. Interest Rate (MPR) – REGRESSION

At officially 27.5%, Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate is choking small businesses and discouraging investment.

Though it helps tackle inflation, and I feel Edun and Cardoso’s Pain, fact is it also reduces access to credit for entrepreneurs and families. A no-win maneuver for the economic council

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE AGAINST JAGABAN EVEN IF I CANT PERSONALLY THINK OF ANY BETTER MOVE HE COULD HAVE MADE. He is the one that said Emilokan and wanted to be president. 🤷🏿‍♂️

6. Foreign Exchange Reserves – IMPROVEMENT

Up by $6 billion in one year. Our reserves are now over $40 billion—a strong war chest for currency defense and international confidence.

This shows discipline in the face of tough choice and fiscal intelligence.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN and SEYI SHOULD TELL HIS PAPA WE SAY HE IS DOING WELL HERE AND WE APPRECIATE

7. Balance of Payments – IMPROVEMENT

Nigeria posted a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024—a rare and impressive development.

This suggests we are finally living within our means and exporting more than we import. On this one Tinubu Government is killing it . This may not buy us rice and dodo for now but it’s a foundamental shift that will trickle down to Fadeyi eventually

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN. LET ME TELL SEYI: YOUR PAPA IS DOING WELL ON THIS

8. Balance Of Trade – IMPROVEMENT

$13.17 billion in trade surplus.

Non-oil exports are rising, and our dependency on imports is reducing gradually.

That’s called sustainable progress and while the haters can’t touch this one physically the truth is future economic rebound is built on this kind of positive trend. It will take time but I am persuaded that Seyi’s Papa is on his game here.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN AND SEYI SHOULD BE PROUD OF HIS PAPA

9. Investor Confidence – IMPROVEMENT

Portfolio investments more than doubled in 2024 to $13.35 billion.

This one surprised even me . You would think with all the noise and all the vawolence those of us who were originally opposed to this government especially in diaspora are making nobody would want to invest in nigeria . Obviously the foreign investors are seeing what many of us Nigerians are not seeing about our nation and the slow and steady moves of Jagaban and his team .

When investors start betting their money on your economy, you must be doing something right.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN… and SEYI PLEASE TELL YOUR PAPA HE POSITIVELY SURPRISED US ON THIS ONE

10. Economic Competitiveness – IMPROVEMENT

Like some of the positive achievements of this government, it does not feel like Nigeria is being economically morally competitive .

Everything feels hard and harsh and painful but somehow it looks like Tinubu Govt is crushing it in economic competitiveness . Do not take my word for it , because I know I sound weird right now, but go and google it.

Even Chatham House—not known for throwing compliments—admitted Nigeria is now at its most competitive level in 25 years. What? But facts are facts even if your body don’t feel it

That didn’t happen by accident. It’s the product of real, strategic policy shifts.

THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE FOR JAGABAN. SEYI TELL YOUR PAPA HE IS A STEALTH BOMBER ON THIS ONE🙌

11. Poverty Rate – REGRESSION
Sadly, poverty has increased. Over 38.8% of Nigerians are living below the line.

No economic recovery is complete if the people can’t feel it in their homes and pockets. This one is tough but it’s one big kernel Seyi’s Papa must crack before most Nigerians will give him his dues

Seyi, your Papa is definitely working hard to reduce poverty but your Papa does not need economists gaslighting Nigerians anyhow by telling them that poverty is better because they can get a miserable kwashiokor-prone lunch for N2,000 while Americans need more than $10 for lunch.

While I agree that your Papa may not have directly caused it, Multi dimensional poverty is still real in nigeria and his advisers doing sophistry or annoying arguments to deny it only makes people give your papa less credit for the good things he is doing

SO , THE FACTS SCORE THIS ONE AGAINST JAGABAN. Seyi this is one area you must tell your Papa to warn those funny economic advisers not to play with the intelligence of Nigerians like Tope Fasua just did.

So, What’s my Verdict as Mayor of Fadeyi?

As a citizen, as a lawyer, and yes—as the Mayor of Fadeyi—I say this without fear or favor: Tinubu’s government is performing better than it feels.

To my former friends in the Obidient camp, I say this with love: Yes, I still admire Peter Obi. I still believe he could have brought a fresh approach to governance.

But my loyalty is to Nigeria first, not to any party, movement, or personality.

This is not about who you or I voted for. This is about what is actually happening in our country.

And whether we like it or not, some of the key fundamentals of our economy are starting to shift in the right direction.

So no, I’m not here to praise Tinubu for perfection.

He still has a lot to prove—especially in reducing waste, communicating better, and protecting Nigeria’s most vulnerable.

But in economic terms? He may be getting this Nigerian house in order. Slowly but surely it appears that Seyi’s Papa is turning things around in some key areas of our economy and we must let him know that too. So we should be sending Seyi to tell his Papa both sides of what is happening on the streets.

My closing thoughts on President Tinubu’s Economic Scorecard:

It is a fact that I am a very passionate man, but I really don’t deal in emotion when it comes to analysis. Regardless of how i feel about a situation (and i am still very salty about how the 2023 elections went down), the facts are the facts. I deal in evidence. I always try to not let my passion cloud my analysis.

So if the government is failing, I will say it loud. And if the government is getting something right—I will also say it loud even if i got dragged for it.

We must be principled enough to call it as it is, not as we wish it were.

Because if we all keep acting like loyal cheerleaders to political parties instead of loyal citizens to Nigeria, we will continue to suffer in cycles.

So yes… it may not feel like it. But just maybe, Jagaban is scoring more goals than we are willing to admit.

Let’s keep watching—and let’s keep holding all of them accountable.

– My name is Dr Ope Banwo and I am Mayor of Fadeyi and I am a legtimate Double Prince of Ijebu Ikala and Odosiwonade Kingdoms in Ogun State

(Dr Ope Banwo, The Mayor of Fadeyi, writes on Nigeria’s Macroeconomic indicators )