THE BIG ELEPHANT IN THE OPPOSITION COALITION’S BOARDROOM: Is Atiku Ready to Play Tinubu’s 2015 Role of Kingmaker, and Support Peter Obi to Become the King? [By Dr. Ope Banwo, Mayor of Fadeyi, and Founder of Naija Lives Matter]

This article is my own considered analysis on the opposition party’s ONLY possible path to winning in 2027 and why I think Peter Obi should lead the opposition coalition ticket in 2027—and why Atiku must play the kingmaker role like Tinubu did in 2015.

As the 2027 general elections approach, the political drumbeats are growing louder—and once again, opposition forces find themselves faced with the same recurring challenge: how to dethrone an entrenched APC regime without self-sabotaging through ego and entitlement.

All the key players—Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, El Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and others—are circling the coalition conversation like political gladiators sizing each other up in the colosseum. But beneath the niceties and coded interviews, one big elephant remains parked squarely in the middle of the coalition boardroom: Who should lead the coalition—and who must play the kingmaker?

Let me be clear: I am writing this not as an Obidient or a partisan supporter of Peter Obi. In fact, I publicly exited the Obidient movement months ago for reasons I clearly stated at the time. My position here has nothing to do with past loyalties or ideological alignments. This is a cold, unemotional analysis of the political facts as they stand today. Of course, as realities evolve, political positions may also shift—but based on today’s terrain, this is my honest, fact-driven take.

After weighing both optics and strategy, I am convinced that as of today, June 26th, 2025 (things may change as things change), the answer is crystal clear:

Peter Obi Must Lead. Atiku Must Play the Tinubu Role of 2015.

In 2015, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not run. He built. He funded. He united the South-West. He formed alliances across the North. And by sacrificing his ambition to project Muhammadu Buhari, he got what he always wanted—power in the long term.

Now, it is Atiku’s turn to make that same historic decision.

But let’s be brutally honest: everyone knows the opposition is trying to weaponize Tinubu’s 2015 coalition playbook against him—the very template he designed to dethrone an incumbent through a merger of strange political bedfellows. But here’s the problem: they are studying the strategy but refusing to apply the formula.

You can’t mimic Tinubu’s historic coalition strategy while ignoring the key ingredients that made it work:

• One consensus candidate with national electability
• Strategic regional pairing
• Sacrifice of personal ambition for collective gain
• Ruthless discipline in messaging and unity

If the current coalition fails to recognize this, then what they are building is not a winning strategy—it’s a glorified political WhatsApp group destined to implode by 2026.

And let me add this for those who still doubt where the true threat lies in 2027: The truth is, I strongly suspect the ruling party—led by Jagaban Ahmed Bola Tinubu, arguably the most strategic and Machiavellian politician Nigeria has ever produced—already knows that Peter Obi is the real danger.

That would explain why all their firepower has been aimed squarely at him. It also explains why the APC government has largely ignored Atiku Abubakar and focused on demystifying and delegitimizing Peter Obi in the last two years. Peter Obi gave them such a serious run for their money in 2022 that they are taking him very, very seriously now—though they pretend otherwise (and many actually believe Peter Obi won that election).

Think about it: Obi’s Labour Party is technically a third force—minuscule in structure compared to PDP—yet Bayo Onanuga and the APC propaganda machine have spent the last two years in full-blown Obi Demolition Mode. There is a reason.

Meanwhile, they largely ignore Atiku and the PDP, the so-called main opposition. Why? Could it be that in the dark war rooms of the APC, they already know what some in the coalition are too scared to admit: Peter Obi is the one candidate that can bring down the APC empire.

Now the only question is whether Atiku is willing to join ranks as kingmaker and help him win by bringing in some serious B2 Stealth Bombers to support him. (Atiku may not be electable anymore, but he has money that he is willing to spend; he has clout in the North that can rally malcontents to support P.O. He has been Vice President for eight years and is more experienced than the relatively naïve Peter Obi in the art of gutter politics.)

But let’s not be simplistic. This isn’t just about Obi’s crowd-pulling energy or Atiku’s political age and sagacity. This is deeper. Let’s confront the uncomfortable truths with clarity and courage.

1. Atiku Is Politically Experienced and Connected—But No Longer Electable Nationally

Let’s give Atiku his due. He is:

• A seasoned political heavyweight
• The most nationally connected politician in the opposition
• A man willing to spend the kind of money and mobilize the kind of structure that a serious opposition challenge to APC truly requires.

But all this machinery means little when the engine can no longer connect with the Nigerian people.

Atiku has run for president six times and failed every single time. Even in 2023, with Peter Obi as his former VP candidate and widespread discontent against APC, he still couldn’t win. Why?

Because Atiku doesn’t inspire. He doesn’t energize. He doesn’t connect emotionally. Nigerians, especially the youth, don’t trust him to be different from what they’re trying to escape.

In fact, it’s now painfully obvious: even if Peter Obi were to agree to be Atiku’s running mate in 2027, that ticket still cannot win. The base won’t rally. The fence-sitters won’t budge. And worse, the North-South balance will feel unjustified, given that power rotation demands a Southern presidency after Buhari and Tinubu.

2. On the Flip Side, It’s Also Unrealistic for Atiku to Be Peter Obi’s VP

Let’s also be fair: no serious political strategist should expect Atiku Abubakar to play second fiddle as a vice-presidential candidate in 2027. That would be a political insult to a man of his stature, age, and legacy—whether one agrees with him or not.

Even if Atiku were to accept that role (which he won’t), that ticket would still fail, because:

• Power is not expected to return to the North in 2027.
• The North would see it as betrayal.
• It would disrupt the ethnic-geopolitical balance the opposition desperately needs to win.

So now we are stuck with two losing options:

• Atiku as presidential candidate with Obi as VP (No voter excitement)
• Obi as candidate with Atiku as VP (No northern support)

Which brings us back to that big, clumsy, oversized elephant in the coalition boardroom that few have been bold enough to say out loud:

Peter Obi Must Lead. Atiku Must Play the Tinubu Role of 2015.

Why Peter Obi Is the Most Electable Opposition Figure in 2027 to Go Against President Tinubu

Here’s why the coalition must rally behind Obi—not just out of sentiment, but sheer political realism:

1. He’s the Only Candidate With National Cross-Over Appeal
Peter Obi pulls votes from all quarters:

• Youths
• Urban elites
• Middle-class professionals
• Civil society
• Even fed-up APC and PDP faithfuls

2. His Obidient Movement Has Outlived the Election
Unlike most political campaigns that fizzle out, the Obidient Movement has grown into a national awakening, especially among first-time voters and the disenchanted middle class. It has surprised many with its staying power—almost like the unwavering loyalty of the MAGA-rallying base in the USA for Donald Trump over the last 12 years. That kind of unrelenting support must be respected, even as we continue to call out and resist the excesses of a few dominant players in that movement.

3. Peter Obi May Not Be a Saint Like His Biblical Namesake, But He Is Still the Cleanest and Most Credible Among the Big Names
No unresolved corruption cases. No godfather baggage. No history of switching principles like wardrobe choices. In a cynical country like Nigeria, that is political gold.

4. Peter Obi Has Tried Hard to Be Policy-Driven and Media-Disciplined
Unlike many of his vexatious followers, Obi doesn’t shout. He explains. He doesn’t abuse; he persuades. He speaks like someone ready to govern, not just win. That is real power with good potential to seize the Abuja throne via a free and fair ballot.

5. Like Him or Hate Him, Peter Obi Represents the Future—Not the Past
Nigeria is dying for a generational reset. Obi offers that. Atiku does not.

Again, I say this not because I am an Obi partisan. I am no longer part of that movement. My loyalty today is to Nigeria’s future—not to any man or movement. But when facts speak, bias must bow.

What Then Is Atiku’s Best Move for 2027? He Should Become the Architect, Not the Main Actor!

Atiku has a chance to be remembered not just as a perennial contestant—but as the strategist who finally ended APC dominance.

Let him fund the movement. Let him coordinate the mergers. Let him deploy his northern alliances. Let him bring the big men together.

But let Peter Obi carry the ticket.

That’s the winning formula. They still may not ultimately dislodge the very cagey and very tenacious Jagaban of Borgu from the Buja Throne, but in my sincerely considered opinion, that remains their only path to victory—if there is going to be any victory at all.

Conclusion: This Is Nigeria’s 2015 Moment All Over Again

The last time the opposition united with discipline and sacrifice, they defeated an incumbent (Goodluck Jonathan). That feat can happen again—if egos are checked and ambition is postponed.

So let this article be a wake-up call.

Let the coalition stop pretending that “anyone can lead.”

Let the boardroom whispering end. It’s time to face the truth.

Peter Obi is their best candidate who can win in 2027. Atiku Abubakar is the kingmaker who can make it happen.

They can take it or leave it. That’s the big elephant in the coalition boardroom.

And now, that elephant has spoken.

My name is Ope Banwo, Mayor of Fadeyi and Founder of the Naija Lives Matter Organization, and I remain a non-partisan crusader for the Make Nigeria Great Again (MANGA) project of my non-partisan organization.